UPPSC PCS - 2013

When a conclusion is usually expressed impletldly of explicitly in terms of a probabilistic statement, it refers to.

Year Asked: 2013

A
reasoning dialogues
B
deductive reasoning
C
inductive reasoning
D
none of the above

Correct Answer

C. inductive reasoning

Detailed Explanation

The correct answer is C) inductive reasoning. In induction we move from specific observations to a general conclusion, and that conclusion is never guaranteed. The evidence only makes it more or less probable. So when the conclusion is stated in probabilistic terms, such as 'likely' or 'with high probability', the reasoning is inductive.

  • A) Reasoning dialogues: not a recognised category of logical reasoning. It is a distractor with no basis in standard logic texts.
  • B) Deductive reasoning: here the conclusion follows necessarily from valid premises. If the premises are true and the argument is valid, the conclusion cannot be false. That is certainty, not probability.
  • D) None of the above: wrong, because inductive reasoning fits the description exactly.

Core concept: the contrast between necessary and probable inference. Deduction gives certainty; induction gives probability. Scientific generalisation, statistical inference and everyday prediction all rely on induction. For Mains, this connects to the logic of the scientific method and to the limits of empirical knowledge.

Trap: aspirants see the word 'probabilistic' and pick statistics or probability theory as a separate answer. The question asks about the type of reasoning, and in logic that type is induction.

This question appeared in UPPCS 2013 GS Paper 2.

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