UPPSC PCS - 2014

A Quantitative technique for decision making that shows a complete picture of potential alternative decision paths is called.

Year Asked: 2014

A
The Delphi technique
B
A decision true
C
Brain storming
D
Pay back analysis

Correct Answer

B. A decision true

Detailed Explanation

The answer is B, a decision tree. The option is printed as 'A decision true', which is clearly a typo for 'decision tree', but the concept is unambiguous. A decision tree is a graphical quantitative tool. Decision nodes (squares) show the choices available, chance nodes (circles) show uncertain outcomes, and end nodes carry payoffs. You work backwards from the end nodes, compute expected monetary value at each chance node, and select the best branch at each decision node. It lays out the full set of alternative paths, which is exactly what the question asks.

  • A) Delphi technique is a structured forecasting method. Experts answer questionnaires anonymously over several rounds until they converge on a consensus. It builds consensus; it does not map decision paths.
  • C) Brainstorming is a qualitative, group idea-generation method associated with Alex Osborn. It produces options but does not evaluate them quantitatively.
  • D) Pay back analysis measures how long an investment takes to recover its cost. It evaluates one project at a time and ignores the branching structure of alternatives.

Mains connection: decision trees are used in project appraisal under risk, such as choosing between a large dam and smaller alternative irrigation schemes, and they feature in public policy and PPP evaluation.

Trap: aspirants pick Delphi because it sounds analytical and involves experts. Remember that Delphi produces a forecast consensus, while a decision tree shows the paths.

This question appeared in UPPCS 2014 GS Paper 2.

CollectorBabu Logo

CollectorBabu: Your Trusted Guide to Ace the UPSC Journey!

Contact Information

COPYRIGHT © COLLECTOR BABU 2026. All Rights Reserved
telegram-icon