UPPSC PCS - 2015

When a conclusion is usually expressed implicity or explicitly, in terms of a probabilistic statement, it Refers to a

Year Asked: 2015

A
Reasoning dialogue
B
deductive reasoning
C
inductive reasoning
D
None of the above

Correct Answer

C. inductive reasoning

Detailed Explanation

The correct answer is C) inductive reasoning. Inductive reasoning moves from specific observations to a general conclusion, and that conclusion is only probable, never certain. Because the premises support the conclusion without guaranteeing it, the conclusion is stated in probabilistic terms, such as 'most', 'likely' or 'with 90 per cent confidence'.

  • A) Reasoning dialogue: This is not a recognised category of logical reasoning in the standard framework. It describes a form of discussion, not a type of inference.
  • B) Deductive reasoning: Here the conclusion follows necessarily from true premises. Its conclusions are certain, not probabilistic. A syllogism is the classic example.
  • D) None of the above: Wrong, since option C matches the description exactly.

The core concept is the difference between deduction (certainty within a closed system) and induction (probability from evidence). This matters for Mains: scientific method, statistical inference, and evidence-based policy all rely on inductive reasoning, and the GS paper essays often test whether a candidate understands the limits of generalisation.

Trap: Aspirants see the word 'conclusion' and pick deduction, because deduction is the more familiar 'logic' term. The question's key word is 'probabilistic', and that points to induction.

This question appeared in UPPCS 2015 GS Paper 2.

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