UPPSC PCS - 2020
Probability is an attribute of
Year Asked: 2020
Correct Answer
A. An inductive argument
Detailed Explanation
Inductive arguments are those where the premises give only probable support to the conclusion, never certainty. Probability is therefore a built-in attribute of them, and the answer is A.
- B) Deductive argument: Its test is validity. If the premises are true and the form is valid, the conclusion must be true. Deduction is judged by validity and soundness, not by degrees of probability.
- C) Disjunctive proposition: This is a compound proposition built with 'or' (p ∨ q). It has a truth value, but it is not an argument, so probability does not describe it as a type.
- D) Categorical proposition: Statements like 'All S are P' carry quantity, quality and distribution. They are asserted as true or false and do not carry probability as an attribute.
Core concept: Inductive reasoning moves from particular observations to general conclusions, such as from a sample to a population. The conclusion is strong or weak, not valid or invalid. For Mains, this is the logic behind statistical inference, scientific hypothesis testing and judgment under uncertainty, and it links to the logic and reasoning content of Philosophy and GS.
Trap: Students see 'probability' and pick the disjunctive option because it sounds like an either-or chance. Probability belongs to the relation between premises and conclusion in an argument, not to a single proposition.
This question appeared in UPPCS 2020 CSAT Paper.
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