UPSC IAS - 2013

A rise in general level of prices may be caused by 1. an increase in the money supply 2. a decrease in the aggregate level of output 3. an increase in the effective demand Select the correct answer using the codes given below.

Year Asked: 2013

A
1 only
B
1 and 2 only
C
2 and 3 only
D
1, 2 and 3

Correct Answer

D. 1, 2 and 3

Detailed Explanation

All three statements are right, so D is correct. Prices rise when demand for goods and services outruns their supply, and each statement works on one side of that gap.

  • Statement 1 (increase in money supply): More money chasing the same goods pushes up prices. This is the quantity theory logic, MV = PT, and the core of the monetarist explanation of inflation.
  • Statement 2 (decrease in aggregate output): Falling output with demand unchanged shrinks supply, so prices rise. Supply shocks such as a weak monsoon hitting food output work this way.
  • Statement 3 (increase in effective demand): Higher aggregate demand from consumption, investment or government spending lifts prices when the economy is near full capacity. This is demand-pull inflation in Keynesian terms.

Concept: demand-pull versus cost-push and supply-side inflation. Mains angle: GS-III on food inflation and the RBI's inflation-targeting framework, where the Monetary Policy Committee was given statutory backing through the 2016 amendment to the RBI Act.

Trap: aspirants assume a fall in output lowers prices, or that only monetary factors cause inflation. Both are false. Supply shocks and demand pressures each raise prices independently.

This question appeared in UPSC Prelims 2013 GS Paper-1.

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